Compare the price you took
A winning bet can have been badly priced; a losing one can have beaten the close. CLV asks a narrower question: how did your accepted price compare with a defined closing reference for exactly the same bet?
One common price-based measure is:
Sportmonks’ CLV documentation likewise separates price movement from settlement and stresses matching the same selection. A price comparison alone does not establish a realised profit.
Price taken ÷ closing price − 1
If you took 2.10 and the same selection closed at 2.00, the ratio is 2.10/2.00 − 1 = 5%. If you took 1.90 and it closed at 2.00, the ratio is −5%.
These are hypothetical prices. Different CLV definitions use different reference markets or remove bookmaker margin first. Record the method alongside the result so unlike measurements are not mixed together.
Compare accepted and closing prices
These hypothetical records use the same selection, exact line, period and settlement terms. The closing reference is defined as an observed quote immediately before the event starts. All prices are illustrative; no historical-price feed is being claimed.
| Accepted price | Closing price | Calculation | Price-based CLV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.10 ÷ 2.00 − 1 | +5% |
| 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.90 ÷ 2.00 − 1 | −5% |
| 2.10 | Unavailable | No comparable closing observation | Unavailable |
Record both observation times and the closing source with each row. If the line, settlement rules or selection changed, mark the comparison unavailable. A missing closing price is not zero CLV. Neither the price ratio nor the result of one bet establishes a true probability.
Match the reference carefully
A valid comparison keeps the event, selection, exact line and settlement rules consistent. Over 20.5 points cannot be compared directly with over 21.5 points. Regular-time and extra-time markets can also differ.
Choose the reference before inspecting the result. The last quote you happened to see at one bookie is not necessarily a liquid market consensus at a defined cutoff. If the reference is stale or the line has moved, a tidy percentage can hide a poor comparison.
Record:
- The accepted entry price and stake.
- The exact market and line.
- The source and timestamp of the closing reference.
- The CLV calculation used.
- The eventual settlement, including voids or pushes.
Why does the bookmaker margin matter?
A market's margin can change between entry and close. A raw decimal-odds ratio includes that effect. It should not automatically be interpreted as a change in the underlying probability.
A margin-adjusted comparison needs prices for the relevant outcomes and a stated method. An isolated quote is not enough to reconstruct an entire historical market. Missing reference data should remain missing.
What can a run of positive CLV tell you?
It can suggest that your recorded entry prices were higher than the chosen closing references. The strength of that evidence depends on the market, sample and measurement quality.
It is not a universal forecast of future returns. A small sample can be noisy, the reference can be imperfect and execution costs still matter. Review results and accepted prices together rather than replacing one scoreboard with another.
How does this relate to expected value?
Expected value uses an estimate available when considering the bet. CLV is a retrospective comparison with a later reference. Neither measure makes a single result certain.
The simplest practical habit is to keep accurate records and compare prices before betting. A bankroll limit controls exposure; a good-looking metric does not justify ignoring it.